Luis Arraez - 2022 vs 2023

 

2022 vs 2023 season (Part 1)

One of the best hitters of the current era, Luis Arraez is steadily building his legacy. In 2022, he was crowned American League Batting Champion with an ideal start, averaging .318 / .377/ .324/ .314 in the first four months, finishing the season with a .316 BA and surpassing Aaron Judge, who ended the campaign with a .311 BA (and won the AL MVP that year). Although it wasn't the highest average in MLB (Jeff McNeil - .326 BA), Arraez began to attract attention with his unique hitting style. Additionally, he had the lowest strikeout rate with 7.1%, and only 43 strikeouts.

In 2023, things changed for Luis Arraez. After being traded to the Miami Marlins, he faced a bigger challenge: leading the Marlins to the postseason and winning the Batting Title, competing against strong contenders like Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Ronald Acuña.

The 2023 season was very special for Arraez, as he averaged .438/.330/.406/.354 in the first four months, closing the first half of the season with a .383 BA. Arraez's pace was so exceptional that he was projected to reach .400 BA at the end of the season, a feat last achieved by Ted Williams in 1941 (.406 AVG). In the following two months, he averaged .236 (August) and .384 (September/October), finishing the season with .354 BA and winning the National League Batting Champion title. Additionally, he helped lead the Marlins to the postseason, with 203 hits and 69 RBIs, and was the best run producer with RISP for the Marlins, with 53 RBIs.

Arraez became only the second player in the Modern Era to capture a batting title in both leagues, joining DJ LeMahieu (Rockies in 2016, Yankees in 2020), and the first to do so in back-to-back seasons. His .354 average (147 games) is the highest in a full season since the Rangers’ Josh Hamilton's .359 in 2010.

In this post, we will analyze both seasons to determine which season and which league were more challenging for Arraez, where he excelled more and contributed most to his team. This task is not easy, as we will also use pitcher stats to assess the difficulty of the pitches, such as spin rate, vertical and horizontal movement, and release speed. I hope you enjoy this post and continue learning more about this incredible player.

You can see the complete analysis of the 2023 season here.

If you have any questions regarding the types of pitches (Fastball, Changeup, etc.), here is all the necessary information

Enjoy it 🙌

Data provided by Baseball Savant

1- Summary of both seasons

To start, let's look at the difference in the main stats. All his stats improved in the 2023 season, with 20 more RBIs and 30 more hits than in 2022. In terms of wOBA, both averages remained above the MLB average(.320). Below, we can see his Batted Ball Events stats; he had 43 more in 2023. 

In Flare/Burner %(a flare is considered a ball hit into the shallow outfield, whereas a burner is a hard-hit ground ball. These are unified in the same category because they produce similar results.) and Sweet Spot %, there was a considerable increase, especially considering that the pitch clock was implemented in 2023, which disadvantages pitchers(This doesn't take away any credit from the hitters, but it is something to keep in mind.). Lastly, in Weak %, there was an increase of 2.3%.  you can see more about Launch Speed Angle here.

Here, some highlights of the 2022 season:

In the chart below, we can see stats focused on his swing. He had a higher percentage of swings in 2023, and consequently, his stats increased slightly. Zone Swing & Miss is the percentage of swings and misses made in the strike zone, where his average doubled in 2023, while outside the strike zone (OZ  Swing and miss), his average dropped. Additionally, his Whiff % remained between 7.1 and 7.8%, which is an impressively low average that any hitter would want to achieve.

Finally, we have stats that are not directly related but still worth analyzing separately. In strikeouts and Strikeout %, his average decreased, with 9 fewer strikeouts and a 1.6% lower Strikeout % in 2023. Pop up % remained very low. Regarding walks, Arraez isn't one to seek many walks. In fact, during the 2023 season, he had a .255 BA in Three balls situations, making it more likely for him to hit rather than take a walk to get on base.

In 2022, Arraez had an xwOBA of .333, which indicates he was expected to have a solid offensive performance, above the league average. In 2023, his xwOBA increased to .354, his overall contact quality and expected offensive performance improved compared to the previous year. This increase implies that Arraez made better contact, leading to a higher likelihood of getting on base and creating more offensive value for his team.

Here, one of Arraez's most important moments in WBC 2023, hitting a two-run home run  against  USA:

After reviewing all the stats, we can say that the 2023 season was a year of significant improvements for Arraez. What we need to determine is in which season it was more difficult for him to hit and in which he faced fewer challenges. We need to examine the pitches he faced, their effectiveness and velocity.

Here I leave you the glossary of the new Pitcher's statistics that we will use:

Velo: The speed that the pitch is traveling when the ball is released from the pitcher’s hand (in miles per hour)

Spin Rate: The speed that the pitch is spinning when the ball is released from the pitcher’s hand (in revolutions per minute).

vMov (Vertical Movement): refers to the amount a pitch moves up or down as it travels toward the plate. This movement is influenced by gravity, the spin of the ball, and the speed at which it is thrown.

hMov (Vertical Movement): refers to the amount a pitch moves side to side as it travels toward the plate. This movement is influenced by the spin and the arm angle of the pitcher.

Vertical Approach Angle(VAA): refers to the angle at which a pitch crosses the plate in the vertical plane, reported as the angle in degrees. It measures the steepness or flatness of the pitch's trajectory as it arrives at the batter.

Horizontal Approach Angle(VAA): refers to the angle at which a pitch crosses the plate in the horizontal plane, reported as the angle in degrees. It measures the side-to-side angle of the pitch’s trajectory as it approaches the batter.

Extension: distance, reported in feet, towards home plate from which the pitcher releases the ball relative to the pitching rubber.

2- 2022 season

During the 2022 season, Arraez faced 2,413 pitches, which included: 1,484 fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter), 586 breaking balls (slider, curveball, sweeper, etc.), and 343 off-speed pitches (changeup, split-finger). 

Let's start with the Fastballs. His overall performance was impressive, with .349 batting average(ranked 4th - min 250 PA), 315 Batted balls(BBE), of which 118 were hits, 25 strikeouts, and 6.1% whiff rate.

In the chart below, we can see more details about his performance against fastballs. In the first chart, we observe that overall, he had more contact swings (batted balls and fouls) than swings and misses. Most of his contact swings were in the upper and center zones, and he had the most swings and misses (15) out of the strike zone. At this point, we see that Arraez maintains his tendency to make good contact.

In the second chart, we can see the launch angle and exit velocity of the batted balls. Out of 315 batted balls, 37% were successful hits. Flare/Burner and Topped where he had the most batted balls (BBE), with the Four-seam Fastball being the pitch he dominated the most in 2022. 

you can see more about Launch Speed Angle here.

Let's compare Arraez's performance against fastballs. All the players shown in the chart have at least 200 PA. As you can see, Arraez was one of two players with a BA over .300 and fewer than 40 whiffs (also called swing and misses), along with Joey Wendle (Marlins). We can also add to this list, with fewer than 60 whiffs, Steven Kwan (Guardians), Alejandro Kirk (Blue Jays), Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), and Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays).

Reviewing Arraez's performance against fastballs, it is clear that these are his favorite pitches to hit. To provide a reference, against the Four-seam Fastball, Arraez had 15 Run Value. This metric measures the run impact of an event based on the runners on base, outs, ball and strike count, will help us compare his performance with other players. In terms of Run Value, he ranked in the top 5 in MLB among players with at least 200 plate appearances. With Run Value, we can conclude that Arraez greatly benefited from the four-seam fastball, regardless of the quality of the pitch he faced. And that is what we will examine next.

To objectively assess the quality of the pitches, we will divide the zone into four areas: Heart, Shadow, Chase, and Waste, focusing on the first three. Taking in account only Four-seam fastballs:

Heart: 29.4%, .386 BA, .401 wOBA and 4.9% whiff rate.  

Shadow:  45.4%, .351 BA, .372 wOBA and 5.6% whiff rate.

Chase:  18.8%, .471 BA, .574 wOBA and 9.7% whiff rate.

In the 2022 season, Arraez ranked 12th overall in Sweet Spot% with 38.7%. The SwSp% metric stands for Sweet Spot, which refers to batted balls with a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees

Since Arraez had a high Sweet Spot percentage, we can get an idea of how he handled the Four-seam fastball in the mentioned zones. The majority of the pitches he received were in the Shadow zone with 45.4%. 

In the Shadow zone, he had 39.8 Sweet Spot%, and in the Heart had 36.7% Sweet Spot. Having a 42.9% Sweet Spot in the Chase zone, Arraez was able to effectively convert his batted balls into hits (.471 BA) and had a 9.7% Whiff rate.

The chart is oriented from Batter's perspective*

Now, we'll delve into more complex statistics. In the chart below, we can see the Four-seam, separated by left-hand pitchers (L) and right-hand pitchers (R). 

Each stat is averaged to provide a general perspective. Velocity, spin rate, and extension are essential to generate quality movement, whether vertical (important for fastballs) or horizontal (toward the Pitcher arm side or glove side).

With an average velocity of 93 MPH and an extension of 6.3-6.4 feet, both stats indicate that these pitches were executed at the MLB average. In terms of movement, they registered good upward vertical movement. 

For Vertical and Horizontal Approach Angle, vertically, they had an angle of approximately -5, showing that the pitches did not have significant downward drop. Horizontally, the angle remained between 0 and -1, indicating minimal horizontal movement from batter's perspective.

To differentiate the difficulty, we will compare four-seam fastballs with 17 inches or more vs. less than 17 inches of vertical movement, as greater upward movement makes it harder to make contact with the ball.

Arraez faced 439 four-seam fastballs with more than 17 inches of vertical movement and 491 pitches with less than 17 inches. Unsurprisingly, the swinging strike percentage was lower for both categories. In terms of batted balls(BBE), there were 78 with 17 inches(vMov), of which 32 were hits, representing 41% of batted balls. For pitches with less than 17 inches, 112 batted balls, 42 hits,  37.5% of batted balls.

Below the chart, we can see the quality of the batted balls. With more than 17 inches(vMov), Arraez had better performance, with 32.1% Flare/Burner and a higher percentage of Solid Contact and Barrels. We can conclude that Arraez faced pitches with significant vertical movement and was able to make good outcomes, not only offensively but also due to the high percentage of balls he received (41.7%).

Now let's take look at the Sinker: 354 pitches, with a .350 batting average and a 6% whiff rate.

Cutter: he received 194 pitches, with a .250 BA and an 8.2% whiff rate. 

In the chart below, we can see that the Cutter had an average velocity of 87-89 mph. In terms of movement, the Cutter fulfilled its function as a fastball with some horizontal movement (2.7-2.9 inches).

With the Sinker, there is much more horizontal movement (which is the characteristic of the sinker) between 14-15 inches, combined with a good velocity of 93-94 mph. In both types of pitches, they had a much higher Vertical Approach Angle compared to the Four-seam due to their movement and, in the case of the Cutter, due to its lower velocity.

The Cutter can vary by the pitcher, where the speed can be 90 to 95 mph, in some cases up to 99 mph, in 2022, closers Emmanuel Clase and Camilo Doval averaged 99.4 mph. Arraez faces both, against Clase: 2 PA, 1 K, 25% Whiff and against Doval: 1 PA, 1BB.

In the chart below, we can see Arraez's performance against certain types of Sinkers and Cutters. Against Sinkers with more than 15 inches of horizontal movement and 95+ mph, 14.3% were Batted balls, and 45.5% were Topped (ground balls). 

In the case of Cutters, we used more specific metrics due to the significant variation in vertical movement. I decided to use between 5-10 inches as that is the movement closest to the characteristics of a good Cutter, and 4 to 9 horizontal inches to show pitches with the widest range of horizontal movement. His performance wasn't very good: 33.3% fouls, 24.2% Batted balls, and an increase in Swinging Strikes to 6.1%. In Batted ball type%, 50% were Under% (Fly balls and pop-ups), but surprisingly, 12.5% were Solid Contact (Batted balls that approach the characteristics of a Barrel but do not qualify as such).

Now let's look at the Breaking balls. In this category, Arraez faced five different types of breaking balls. We'll focus on the three with the most pitches: Slider (305 pitches), Curveball (241 pitches), and Knuckle Curve with 69 pitches. 

Overall, Arraez had a .267 BA(ranked 45th - min 75 PA), 106 BBE, of which 32 were hits, 14 strikeouts, and a 10% Whiff rate.

In the chart below, we can see more details about his performance against Breaking balls, in the first chart, we can see the contact swings (fouls and batted balls) versus swings and misses. As Arraez is known for, there were very few swings and misses. 28.8% of the pitches were out of the strike zone with 12 swings and misses. In the center and lower zones, he had the most contact swings with 59.

Below, we can see the Batted Ball Type for each pitch type. As I mentioned earlier, the Slider was his favorite pitch, with 31.1% Flare/Burner. If we compare to Fastballs in this category, we can see that the difficulty increased when he faced Breaking balls, due to the increase in Under%(fly balls and pop ups), which was 10% higher than with Fastballs in general.

If we compare Arraez's performance against breaking balls, we can see that the difference wasn't as significant compared to other players with at least 75 PA. Even so, Arraez remained within an exclusive group, with a BA over .260 and fewer than 40 whiffs, along with Wander Franco (Rays) and Bryson Stott (Phillies).

Let's talk about the Slider. With .348 BA, it had the best batting average in 2022 (min 50 PA), the best Whiff rate with 11.5%, and the third-best Strikeout rate: 11.3%.

To objectively assess the quality of the pitches, we will divide the zone into four areas: Heart, Shadow, Chase, and Waste, focusing on the first three. Taking in account only Slider:

Heart: 23.5%, .379 BA, .389 wOBA and 7.3% whiff rate.  

Shadow:  45.3%, .324 BA, .319 wOBA and 8.8% whiff rate.

Chase:  24.8%, .400 BA, .354 wOBA and 33.3% whiff rate.

Although his overall performance against breaking balls wasn't the best, he was more dominant against sliders (the pitch type he faced the most in this group - 305 pitches). In the Shadow zone (.324 BA), he had a 14% Sweet Spot, a very low number, but still managed to achieve 22.8% Flare/Burner rate. In the Chase zone, he recorded a better perfomance - .400 BA with a 37.5% Sweet Spot.

In the chart below, we can see more about the performance of the Slider that Arraez faced in 2022. With an average speed of 85 mph, 2 inches of vertical movement, 4 to 6 inches of horizontal movement, and a vertical approach angle of 7 to almost 8 degrees, it had a high drop rate for a Breaking ball.

If we focus only on horizontal movement, we can divide the Slider into two categories: pitches with 5 to 15 inches and pitches with 5 or fewer inches. To reference this division, we used the 2022 MLB Pitch Movement Leaderboard, guided by the percentage difference from the average horizontal movement of Sliders("vs Avg"). 

For pitches with 5 to 15 inches of movement, 18.4% were Batted balls, with 35.3% Flare/Burner, and surprisingly, 11.8% Barrel, indicating strong hitting power against this type of Slider. For pitches with 5 inches or less, 20.6% were Batted Balls, with 39.1% Under, indicating difficulty making comfortable contact with the ball.

But if we want to add velocity to the Slider (setting aside horizontal movement), only 21 pitchers averaged a Slider with 88+ mph against Arraez. Among them, only Joe Kelly(White Sox) managed to give up a hit. Among the 20 pitchers who stopped Arraez are elite pitchers such as Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Emmanuel Clase, and Blake Snell. If we combine these five(using Sliders), Arraez only generated 2 Batted Balls.

Now, if we combine the performance against Curveball and Knuckle Curve, Arraez had a poor performance: .159 BA(ranked 240th), 9.3% Whiff rate, 38 BBE, of which 7 were hits.

For this analysis, they are basically the same Pitch type, with an average speed between 78 to 83 mph, 8 to 10 inches of vertical movement, and a vertical approach angle (VAA) of 9 to 10 degrees. The difference between them is the Horizontal Movement, as Curveballs averaged more inches.

To compare the performance of both pitch types, we will divide them into two categories: pitches with more than 10 inches of drop(vMov) and between 10 to 17 inches of horizontal movement. In this category, he had 30.3% Called Strikes, 18.2% Batted balls, and a high number of swinging strikes (compared to previous charts) with 9.1%, and 50% Flare/Burner. 

In the other category, with less than 10 inches of drop and less than 10 inches of horizontal movement, half of the pitches were Balls (52.2%), followed by 20.9% Batted balls. In the Batted-ball Type%, we can see more types of contact, with 14.3% Barrel and 7.1% Solid Contact.

Despite not having a good performance, he was the second-best in Whiff% (minimum 25 PA) in the Curveball category(Curveball, Knuckle Curve and Slow Curve) with 9.3%.

To conclude the 2022 season, lets take at look to Offspeed balls. Arraez faced Changeups (304 pitches) and Split-Fingers (35 pitches). 

Overall, Arraez had a .258 BA(ranked 42th - min 75 PA), 86 BBE, of which 23 were hits, and 6.7% Whiff rate (ranked 1st). 

In the chart below, we can see the same trend: few swings and misses, representing 6.8% of the total, with 55 contact swings outside the strike zone and 41 in the center zone. The quality of batting followed the same trend, with a higher percentage of Topped and Flare/Burner. Against the Changeup, he had a high percentage of Under with 27.6%.

In the chart below, we can see that Arraez didn't have a great performance in terms of batting average, but he still stood out with the fewest whiffs, with just 11. Three other players had fewer than 20 whiffs: Steven Kwan, Bryson Stott, and Keibert Ruiz. All players in this chart had at least 75 PA against Offspeed balls.

If we talk solely about performance against changeups, he didn't stand out either: .253 BA, .304 wOBA, but with the lowest Whiff - 6.7%(min 50 PA).

To have a better view of his performance against the Changeup, let's divide the zones into Heart, Shadow, Chase, and Waste(also called Attack Zones). Considering the first three zones:

Heart: 19.1%, .304 BA, .440 wOBA,  and 3.9% whiff rate.  

Shadow:  45.1%, .213 BA, .202 wOBA, and 7.2% whiff rate.

Chase:  25.7%, .333 BA, .393 wOBA, and 13.3% whiff rate

In the chart below, we can see that a lot of changeups were thrown to the left side of the batter and in the Shadow Zone (45.1%). In this zone, he had a 33.3% Sweet Spot. He performed best in the Chase zone, with a .333 BA and 42.9% Sweet Spot.

The performance of both pitches is relatively similar, with the difference being in speed. The Split-Finger averaged 87 mph and had 2 to 3 inches less vertical movement. Otherwise, they had the same VAA and HAA, with more than 7 degrees of drop and less than one degree of horizontal variation.

If we consider only the Changeup, we can see that pitches with more horizontal movement (15+ inches) were not very accurate, firstly, due to the high percentage of balls (42.7%), and secondly because 49.5% were outside the strike zone, of the batted balls, 50% were Flare/Burner. 

On the right, we see Changeups with less than 15 inches of horizontal movement and little vertical movement; 60.4% were outside the strike zone. Of the 26.4% of batted balls, 42.9% were Flare/Burner. In both cases, the pitches were mostly located outside the strike zone (lower zone), but they didn't manage to make Arraez miss the ball, although they did have a good percentage of called strikes.

To conclude the 2022 season, let's compare each Pitch group using Estimated Batting Average using Speedangle. This metric combines the exit velocity and launch angle of batted balls to estimate the likelihood that a batted ball will result in a hit. This metric can be read in the same way as traditional Batting Average, but it evaluates the quality of contact rather than just outcomes, which can be influenced by luck and defense. 

What stands out the most is that due to his batting style and exit velocity, Arraez does not tend to have a very high estimated BA (.200 - .249, indicating average performance). Despite this, he was able to excel in certain zones. 

Against Fastballs, Arraez averaged .251, and he performed best in the lower zone with a .300 average. The red squares indicate average or above-average performance. In the center zone, he had the best overall performance with a .274 average. This chart partly summarizes the quality of Arraez's contact, showcasing that although this metric doesn't benefit him or show his true talent in certain zones, he was able to achieve 173 hits in 2022, including 133 singles, 31 doubles, 1 triple, and 8 home runs, winning the 2022 American League batting title🏆.