Kyle Schwarber - 2023
Kyle Schwarber 🇺🇸(2023)
Kyle Joseph Schwarber (Middletown, Ohio, March 5, 1993) is an American professional baseball outfielder and designated hitter for the Philadelphia Phillies. He has previously played in MLB for the Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, and Boston Red Sox.
Kyle Schwarber is undoubtedly a unique player, pushing his ability to drive in runs and hit home runs, while also leading the MLB in strikeouts(215 K) and ranking second in walks(126) during the 2023 season. He finished the season with a batting average of .197, raising many questions about how someone can be so efficient yet have so many offensive shortcomings. That's what we'll analyze in this post. Kyle Schwarber ended the 2023 season with .197 AVG, 47 home runs, and 104 RBIs.
I must clarify that the rankings are based on a combination of both leagues, in order to assess the significance of performance in categories that feature among the best in MLB.
If you have any questions regarding the types of pitches (Fastball, Changeup, etc.), here is all the necessary information
Enjoy it 🙌
Data provided by Baseball Savant
1- Power Hitter
Schwarber faced 3,068 pitches, the second-highest total in MLB, just behind Matt Olson with 3,092. Among these, Schwarber primarily face Four-seam Fastballs (31%), Sliders (18.7%), Sinkers (13.6%), and Changeups (11%).
In the 2023 season, Schwarber recorded 115 hits: 48 singles, 19 doubles, 1 triple, and 47 home runs. The chart below shows the distribution of these hits, with 52.5% going to the pull side (Pull%). He ranked second in the MLB for pull-side hits, just behind Isaac Paredes with 52.7%, and had the lowest percentage(in the MLB) of hits to the opposite field (Oppo%) at just 14.7%.
In the chart below, we can see the percentage of Schwarber's hits, the majority of which came against fastballs (Four-seam, Sinker and Cutter). 41.7% of his hits were in the center zone, and only 13% outside the strike zone. While this made him somewhat predictable, he was relentless when pitchers left the ball over the heart of the plate.
47 of Schwarber's 115 hits were home runs, making him the second player with the most home runs in the season, behind Matt Olson (Braves) with 54.
Schwarber's defining trait is his power, evidenced by his 61 Barrels (ninth in MLB), which accounted for 16.4% of his Batted Ball Events, placing him fifth in barrel percentage among the league's best hitters. In the radial chart below, we can see the launch angle of his batted balls and hits (highlighted in red). 35.4% of his batted balls had a launch angle of 8-32 degrees (also known as Sweet Spot%), but with a highest percentage came from "Under" (between 40-90 degrees) with 30.8%, ranking him 15th in this category.
Looking at his basic stats, one might assume Schwarber swings a lot, but in fact, it's quite the opposite. He ranked as the third player with the lowest swing percentage at 37.7%. However, he was 15th in the league for the highest Whiff rate (31.5%).
Let’s take a look at how effective Schwarber was against each pitch type, starting with Fastballs:
.229 BA, he had 238 BBE, of which 78 were hits(33 HR), 30.5% Strikeout rate, and 22.6% Whiff rate.
To have a better view of his performance against the Fastballs, let's divide the zones into Heart, Shadow, Chase, and Waste(also called Attack Zones). Considering the first three zones, we see the following:
Heart: 30.2%, .317 BA, .461 wOBA, and 13.8% whiff rate.
Shadow: 44.6%, .161 BA, .282 wOBA, and 25.8% whiff rate.
Chase: 20.2%, .048 BA, .464 wOBA, and 50.9% whiff rate.
As you can see, Schwarber dominated the Heart Zone. Out of 132 batted balls in that zone, 52 resulted in hits, also with 31 barrels (ranked third - min 150 PA). What stands out the most is his xwOBA of .448 (ranked 14th), highlighting his good approach against fastballs, He also posted a 36.1% Sweet Spot rate(SwSp%), indicating quality contact. In the other zones, however, there's not much to say—just a lot of swings and misses.
To grasp just how dangerous Schwarber is in the Heart zone, let's examine his pitch distribution, focusing exclusively on fastballs:
15.7% of total pitches were fastballs aimed at the heart zone(Ranked seventh for the lowest percentage of Fastballs pitches in MLB). Overall, he had 132 Batted Ball Events (BBE), of which 52 were hits. Of those hits, 59.1% had a exit velocity of 95 mph or higher (Hard Hit%), ranking him 14th in MLB (min. 150 PA), his average launch angle was 24°(Sweet Spot btw).
In more crucial situations, such as in two-strike counts, he posted a .183 batting average (BA) and a .305 expected wOBA (xwOBA), with 15 hits, including 8 home runs. When ahead in the count (more balls than strikes), he had a .323 BA, a .468 xwOBA, and 21 hits, including 7 home runs. However, where he truly excelled was on the first pitch (0-0 count), hitting .517 BA, .567 xwOBA, recording 15 hits, including 6 home runs.
Now, against Breaking balls:
.135 BA, 80 BBE, of which 22 were hits(10 HR), 51.5% Strikeout rate, and 44.8% Whiff rate( ranked 5th - min 150 PA).
Attack zones:
Heart: 22.3%, .281 BA, .394 wOBA, and 23.4% whiff rate.
Shadow: 39.6%, .055 BA, .155 wOBA, and 51% whiff rate.
Chase: 27.7%, .000 BA, .307 wOBA, and 82.6% whiff rate.
The same trend applied against breaking balls, but with an even higher Whiff rate. In the Chase Zone, his Whiff rate reached 82.6%. However, on the few occasions he made contact in the Heart Zone, Schwarber recorded 50 Batted Ball Events (BBE), with 18 hits and an xwOBA of .382, showing even weaker performance against breaking balls.
Similar to his approach against fastballs, Schwarber showed great patience in waiting for pitches to enter the heart zone.
As seen in the chart below, the distribution slightly favors that area, though the overall trend leans towards the shadow zone, where Schwarber struggled significantly. However, within the heart zone, he held his own: posting a .281 BA, .382 xwOBA, and 50 Batted Ball Events (BBE), of which 18 were hits. On the first pitch, Schwarber excelled with a .444 BA and an impressive .800 xwOBA, showing a clear advantage in the heart zone on first-pitch swings. Outside of these situations, particularly in two-strike counts or when ahead in the count, he couldn’t even maintain league-average numbers.
Lastly, against Off-speed balls:
.185 BA, 55 BBE, of which 15 were hits, 32% Strikeout rate, and 39.2% Whiff rate.
Attack zones:
Heart: 15%, .296 BA, .399 wOBA, and 22.9% whiff rate.
Shadow: 41.8%, .167 BA, .209 wOBA, and 42.4% whiff rate.
Chase: 29.6%, .000 BA, .331 wOBA, and 62.5% whiff rate.
His performance was relatively similar to breaking balls, with his dominance in the Heart Zone almost undeniable. He had 26 Batted Ball Events (BBE), 8 hits, and a .353 xwOBA. However, his results in the Shadow and Chase Zones were weaker, despite maintaining a solid Sweet Spot percentage of 33.3% in the Shadow Zone.
Although only 15% of Offspeed pitches were thrown in the heart zone, Schwarber managed to maintain strong performance in this area, with a .296 BA and a .353 xwOBA. This indicates weaker contact with the ball, but he was still able to achieve a solid batting average.
Having seen how dominant Schwarber is on the first pitch, here are some of his overall stats:
.458 BA (ranked 9th - min 50 PA), .520 xwOBA, and 60 Batted Ball Events (BBE), of which 27 were hits(12 home runs included). Additionally, 48.3% of his hits had an exit velocity of over 95 mph.
This is why you should never throw the first pitch in the heart zone to Kyle Schwarber. It also raises the question of why pitchers make these mistakes, knowing how predictable Schwarber is. Additionally, it highlights just how difficult it is to pitch effectively without giving up hits or hard contact.
2- Patience
Up to this point, we've established that Schwarber struggles in nearly every scenario, but in the heart zone, he clearly stands out, with his best stats coming from that area. One reason his overall numbers may seem inconsistent is that he plays on a highly offensive team like the Phillies, who recorded 1,417 hits in the 2023 season (ranking 9th in MLB). This often led him to face pitchers 3, 4, or even 5 times in a game.
One of his biggest weaknesses was in the Shadow zone, where he posted forgettable stats: .133 BA, .278 xwOBA, and 152 Batted Ball Events (BBE), of which only 36 were hits.
Schwarber led the MLB in the number of balls received in the shadow zone with 424, ranked fourth in called strikes with 331, and seventh in swing-and-miss pitches with 199.
Let's break it down:
1413 pitches in Shadow Zone of which(without counting fouls, hit by pitch):
It's interesting how Schwarber, being one of the players who saw the most pitches, also showed great patience in waiting for the ideal pitch, as his profile is all about making hard contact in the heart of the zone. Thanks to this patience, Schwarber, along with Juan Soto (Padres), led the league in walks this season with 121 each one.
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