Luis Arraez 2022 vs 2023 (Part 2)
2022 vs 2023 season (Part 2)
In the second part, we will analyze the 2023 season. Despite having seen his performance in both seasons (check out Part 1), Arraez received more media attention during this season, making significant adjustments that helped him excel far beyond players with similar characteristics. One example: Steven Kwan (Guardians). Since his debut in 2022, he has been head-to-head with Luis Arraez in contact stats, swing and miss, strikeout, batted balls, etc.
In 2022, Arraez had 56 swings and misses, Kwan was second with 78 S&M in all MLB. Within the strike zone, Kwan had the lowest percentage in MLB with 5.5%, followed by Arraez with 5.6%. In Batted balls, Kwan had 509, Arraez 507. In batting average: Arraez .316, Kwan .298.
In 2023, the same trend continued, with Arraez and Kwan leading in the mentioned stats, but the big difference was the hitting quality. Arraez had 544 batted balls(BBE), of which 203 were hits, being 37% of the BBE. In Kwan's case, 570 BBE, 171 hits, 30%.
If we want to remove the luck and defense factor, in xBA (Expected Batting Average), Arraez averaged .329, Kwan .282. In xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average), Arraez averaged .354, Kwan .317. And in the most important stat of all, Batting Average, Arraez averaged .354 and Kwan .268. In other words, hitting is difficult, putting the ball in play is difficult, and getting a hit is even more difficult. This is where Arraez stands out. This does not take away Kwan's merit, he has the same talent as Arraez, he just needs to improve and apply it, and his consistency has paid off in this 2024 season.
So let's take a closer look at the Arraez 2023 season. Here you can see the performance during that season, but more focused on overall performance.
If you have any questions regarding the types of pitches (Fastball, Changeup, etc.), here is all the necessary information
Enjoy it 🙌
Data provided by Baseball Savant
3- 2023 season
During this season, Arraez faced 2,161 pitches, of which 1,389 were Fastballs (Four-seam, Sinker, and Cutter), 500 were Breaking Balls (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper, etc.), and 272 were Offspeed balls (Changeup, Split-finger, and Forkball).
Here is the game where Arraez became the first Marlins player to make a cycle:
Against Fastballs, he had the third best Batting average in the MLB with .352 BA, behind Lars Nootbaar(.357) and Shohei Ohtani(.380), with at least 250 Plate Appearances (PA):
.352 BA, he had 348 BBE, of which 128 were hits(98 1B), 5.2% Strikeout rate, and 6.6% Whiff rate.
Just like in the 2022 season, Fastballs were his favorite pitches to hit, ranking in the top 3 in Batting Average, Strikeout %, and Whiff% and 128 hits.
As if that wasn't enough, his plate discipline was incredible. In the chart below, we can see the comparison between contact swings (Batted balls and fouls) vs. Swings and misses. He had more contact swings in the center zone with 218, and 21 swings and misses outside the strike zone. The 48 swings and misses he had against Fastballs make up 6.6% of the total. Further down, we can see the percentage of Batted balls he achieved against each type of Fastball, maintaining the same trend of producing Flare/Burner with 30 to 34% of the total, and having a good percentage of Solid Contact (Batted balls that do not qualify as Barrels).
In the chart below, we can see the comparison of Whiffs (also called swing and misses) and Batting Average against fastballs (min 250 PA to qualify). Arraez placed himself in a select group: with over a .340 BA and fewer than 60 whiffs, alongside Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals), TJ Friedl (Reds), and Josh Naylor (Guardians).
Just like in the 2022 season, the Four-seam Fastball was his favorite pitch for producing good outcomes. Recall that in 2022 he had a Run Value of 15; this year it was 7, slightly lowering his team performance but still keeping him in the top 3 for Batting Average with .346, first in Whiff with 6.7% and Strikeout rate with 4.7%.
To have a better view of his performance against the Four-seam, let's divide the zones into Heart, Shadow, Chase, and Waste(also called Attack Zones). Considering the first three zones, we see the following:
Heart: 35.1%, .406 BA, .408 wOBA, and 4.3% whiff rate.
Shadow: 44.3%, .311 BA, .350 wOBA, and 7.2% whiff rate.
Chase: 17.2%, .200 BA, .328 wOBA, and 15.4% whiff rate.
As you can see, in the Heart zone he had the best average with .406, and in the Shadow zone where he received the most pitches had a .311 BA. In the Chase zone, he had a high whiff percentage of 15.4%.
Since Arraez is a good hitter, part of his success is due to his high Sweet Spot % which was 44.7% in 2023, ranking second behind Freddie Freeman with 46.6%.
Against the Four-seam fastball, Arraez had 41.8% Sweet Spot(SwSp%). In the chart below, we can see the distribution of the Four-seam fastballs that Arraez faced, divided into Heart, Shadow, Chase, and Waste zones.
The majority of the pitches he received were in the Shadow zone with 44.3%. The SwSp% metric stands for Sweet Spot, which refers to batted balls with a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees. Since Arraez had a high Sweet Spot percentage, we can get an idea of how he handled the Four-seam fastball in the mentioned zones. In the Shadow zone, he had 37.9%, and in the Heart and Chase zones, he had over 40% Sweet Spot. Despite having a 50% Sweet Spot in the Chase zone, Arraez was not able to effectively convert his batted balls into hits (.200 BA) and 15.4% Whiff rate.
The chart is oriented from Batter's perspective*
The Four-seam fastballs Arraez faced averaged between 93 and 94 mph, with almost 16 inches of vertical movement and more than 7 inches of horizontal movement, and a Vertical Approach Angle of approximately 5 degrees. Compared to last year's averages, the numbers are similar.
Applying the same filters as in the 2022 season, we can see in the chart below, Four-seam pitches with more than 16 inches of vertical movement, where 29.6% were balls, which may indicate poor pitch location or Arraez's good eye. Of the 22.9% of batted balls, 36.3% were Flare/Burner and there was a good percentage of Barrel (4.9%). Comparing to pitches with less than 16 inches of vertical movement, there was a higher percentage of balls (32.4%) and batted balls (26.8%).
Regardless of the vertical movement, Arraez had difficulties against pitches with high velocity (Avg 97+ mph). 21 pitchers averaged a speed of 97 mph or more, and he only managed to produce 14 batted balls, of which 7 were hits.
Now it's time to talk about Sinkers and Cutters. Arraez faced 392 Sinker pitches, with a .357 BA (ranked fifth - min 100 PA), an incredible 34.8 Hard Hit%, and an 8.3% Whiff rate. Against Cutters: 171 pitches, .367 BA (ranked sixth - min 50 PA), and a 3% Whiff rate (ranked first).
In the chart below, we can see that the Cutter had an average velocity between 87 and 97 mph, with a horizontal movement between 1 to 2 inches. Both types of pitches averaged approximately 6 degrees of drop (VAA). A notable difference from the 2022 season is that in 2022, the Sinker had an average velocity of 94 mph.
The Sweet Spot % for Sinkers was 41.1% and for Cutters was 43%, once again demonstrating that his quality of hitting is equal or better against different fastball pitches.
In the chart, we can see that against Sinkers with more than 14 inches of horizontal movement and over 95 mph, 37.5% were balls and 19.6% were batted balls. Of this percentage, 54.5% were Flare/Burner. Against Cutters with 5 to 10 inches of vertical movement and 2 to 5 inches of horizontal movement, 29.5% were batted balls, of which the majority were Under and Topped (26.7%), but with a good percentage of Solid Contact (13.3%).
Against Breaking balls (Curveball, Slider, Sweeper, etc), he had the second best Batting average in the MLB with .362 BA, behind Yandy Diaz with .387, with at least 100 Plate Appearances (PA):
.362 BA, 105 BBE, of which 42 were hits, 10.3% Strikeout rate, and 13.6% Whiff rate.
Since the probability of a whiff is higher on breaking balls, they are harder to hit, especially with the very short reaction time to differentiate between pitches. However, this was not a problem for Arraez, with only 32 swing and misses, the majority of which were outside the strike zone (18). Against sliders and curveballs, he had a high percentage of Flare/Burner.
To compare Arraez's incredible performance, let's look at a comparison of Batting Average and Whiffs with other players. In the chart below, we can see that Arraez is one of only two players with a BA greater than .280 and fewer than 40 whiffs (also called swing and misses), alongside Wander Franco. With a BA over .300, Arraez stands alone but is in good company with Yandy Diaz, Corey Seager, and Ronald Acuña, all of whom had more than 70 whiffs.
Note that this chart includes players with at least 100 PA against breaking balls.
Now it's time to talk about the Slider. Arraez faced 242 pitches, with .345 BA (ranked fifth - min 50 PA), and a 17.3% whiff rate. This whiff percentage is one of the two highest among the pitch types Arraez faced in the 2023 season, along with Sweeper - 19%. In fact, the rest didn't exceed 10%.
To better understand the distribution of sliders, let's look at the attack zones (Heart, Shadow, Chase, and Waste):
Heart: 24%, .391 BA, .392 wOBA, and 12.2% whiff rate.
Shadow: 37.6%, .346 BA, .333 wOBA, and 14.9% whiff rate.
Chase: 26%, .250 BA, .273 wOBA, and 33.3% whiff rate.
In the Heart zone, Arraez averaged .391 BA with a 38.9% Sweet Spot. In the Shadow zone, where he received the most pitches, he swung at 69.1% of them, averaging .346 BA with a 41.5% Sweet Spot, indicating great comfort in putting the balls in play. Similarly, in the Chase zone, although with fewer pitches, the stats were similar, except for the BA, which averaged .250.
In the chart below, we can see the same trend of swing and misses: very few whiffs. The majority of contact swings (fouls and batted balls) were in the lower zone with 52. Below, we can see that against the Changeup, the quality of balls in play was highly contested, but 33.3% were Topped (ground balls), similar to the Split-finger with 46.7%.
To compare Arraez's performance against Offspeed balls, the chart below shows all players with at least 75 PA against these pitches. Arraez was one of two players with a BA over .300 and fewer than 20 whiffs (also called swing and misses) alongside Nathaniel Lowe(Rangers). Additionally, we can add Jeff McNeil(Mets) and Cody Bellinger(Cubs) to the list with fewer than 30 whiffs.
To conclude with the Slider, let's look at pitches with more than 10+ inches of horizontal movement: a large percentage were balls (33.3%) and fouls (30.3%). Additionally, there were 18.2% batted balls, of which 66.7% were under, indicating poor adjustment against this type of slider. On the other hand, against pitches with less than 10 inches of horizontal movement, 22.9% were batted balls, where he performed better, with 40% Flare/Burner and 8% Barrel.
Against Offspeed balls (Changeup, Splitter, Forkball), he ranked fourth in Batting average in the MLB with .351 BA, with at least 75 Plate Appearances (PA):
.351 BA, 91 BBE, of which 33 were hits, 3.1% Strikeout rate, and 4.3% Whiff rate.
To better understand the distribution of Changeups, let's look at the attack zones (Heart, Shadow, Chase, and Waste):
Heart: 18.8%, .385 BA, .396 wOBA, and 7.5% whiff rate.
Shadow: 42.7%, .341 BA, .310 wOBA, and 1.7% whiff rate.
Chase: 27.7%, .200 BA, .273 wOBA, and 0% whiff rate.
The most impressive aspect is the low Whiff percentage, indicating Arraez's great vision in identifying these pitches. In the Heart and Shadow zones, he was able to average .385 and .341, respectively. Despite not having a high Sweet Spot% in the Shadow zone, 21.5% were Flare/Burners. Additionally, he tried to put balls in play in the Chase zone, where he wasn't very effective (.200 BA), as 62.5% were topped (ground balls).
The average velocity of the changeup was 84-86 mph, with a spin rate below 1800 RPM, minimal vertical movement, but significant horizontal movement (14 inches).
To conclude the 2023 season, let's compare each Pitch group using Estimated Batting Average using Speedangle. This metric combines the exit velocity and launch angle of batted balls to estimate the likelihood that a batted ball will result in a hit. This metric can be read in the same way as traditional Batting Average, but it evaluates the quality of contact rather than just outcomes, which can be influenced by luck and defense.
If we compare it with the previous season, we can see a significant difference. In the 2022 season, Arraez hit over .250 in four areas, three of them in the center zone. In 2023, Arraez hit over .250 in eight areas, and six of them were above .300. In the center and lower zones, he was lethal against breaking balls, and even outside the strike zone, he averaged .343.
The evolution and adjustment were crucial for Arraez in 2023, as he faced more breaking pitches, with opponents trying to deceive him with offspeed balls, which didn't work well. This resulted in a historic MLB season: 203 hits - 160 singles, 30 doubles, 3 triples, and 10 home runs. Additionally, he won the most coveted title once again, competing against elite players like Ronald Acuña and Freddie Freeman.
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