Luis Arraez - 2023

 

Luis Arráez 🇻🇪 (2023)

Luis Sangel Arráez (San Felipe, Venezuela, April 9, 1997), since his MLB debut in 2019, he hasn't stopped doing great things. He became the 2022 American League batting champion with the Minnesota Twins, boasting an impressive .316 batting average and the 2023 National League Batting champion with the Marlins with a .354 BA.

Arraez became only the second player in the Modern Era to capture a batting title in both leagues, joining DJ LeMahieu (Rockies in 2016, Yankees in 2020), and the first to do so in back-to-back seasons. His .354 average (147 games) is the highest in a full season since the Rangers’ Josh Hamilton's .359 in 2010.

It's quite difficult to describe how phenomenal Arraez was in 2023. Not only did he have the best batting average in MLB, but he was also the best in plate discipline, a player very difficult to strike out. Moreover, it was very challenging for pitchers to know where to pitch to him and for fielders to position themselves, as Arraez could hit the ball anywhere on the field.

In this post, we will analyze the performance and plate discipline of Luis Arraez in 2023. Arraez was the first player I analyzed; you can see here the analysis of the first half of the 2023 season.

I must clarify that the rankings are based on a combination of both leagues, in order to assess the significance of performance in categories that feature among the best in MLB.

If you have any questions regarding the types of pitches (Fastball, Changeup, etc.), here is all the necessary information

Enjoy it 🙌

Data provided by Baseball Savant

1- Hits

Arraez faced 2,161 pitches, including 12 different types of pitches, with the top 4 being: Fastball - 38%, Sinker - 19%, Slider - 11%, and Changeup - 10%. With a .354 batting average, there was no pitch he couldn't put into play.

His career has been on the rise. After being the Batting Champion in 2022, narrowly edging out none other than Aaron Judge (2022 American League MVP) with a .316 batting average and 173 hits, this year he undoubtedly continued to elevate his game with a .354 batting average and 203 hits, ranking  third, alongside Freddie Freeman with 211 and Ronald Acuña with 217 hits. 

Of Arraez's 203 hits, 160 were singles, 30 were doubles, 3 were triples, and 10 were home runs. He was the king of singles in MLB, sharing the top 3 with Ronald Acuña - 137 and Nico Hoerner with 135.

In the chart below, we can see the distribution of hits, mostly singles. We can observe that many singles were hit to the outfield, highlighting Arraez's accuracy and the batting style he exerts when putting the ball in play.

Arraez is known for his unique batting style. To be a hitter like him, you must sacrifice power. His Hard Hit % (hits with an exit velocity of 95 mph or more) was 25.7%, ranking in the bottom 5 averages in MLB. His average launch angle was 11.5, which is reflected in his high number of singles.

Another way to demonstrate the quality of Arraez's swing is with Sweet Spot % (launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees), which is considered the ideal point for good contact with the ball and the location of the hit. He was the second-best in this category with 44.7%, behind Freddie Freeman with 46.6%.

In the first part of the season (before the All-Star game), he had a .383 batting average, but his performance dropped in the second part, with a .314 batting average.

Against right-handed pitchers (RHP) and left-handed pitchers (LHP), he had a batting average of .362 and .326 respectively. An interesting fact is that when Arraez swung at the first pitch, his batting average was .287, but when he let the first pitch go by, his average rose to .376. 

In the chart below, we can see that 36% of his hits were in the center zone and 23.2% were outside the strike zone, making him very unpredictable when deciding to swing at or take pitches outside the strike zone. 

This can be translated as follows(Out of Zone pitches): 

- he let 68.5% of the out of zone pitches go by (balls and called strikes)

- 14.4% fouls

- 13.6% batted ball events

- 3.6% swinging strikes. 

Additionally, it's noteworthy that 26% of his batted ball events were in the upper left zone outside the strike zone (the corner "L" with 15 hits in the heatmap chart below). 

To compare his performance against out-of-zone pitches, we will use Out of Zone Contact %, a stat that measures the percentage of contact a batter makes with pitches outside the strike zone. In this category, Arraez ranked first in MLB with 87.2%, sharing the top 3 with Myles Straw  - 76.7% and Nico Hoerner - 74.9%. Lastly, within the strike zone, he also led with 93.8%.

*The heatmap is oriented from the pitcher's perspective.*

With runners in scoring position (RISP), his performance was exceptional: .434 batting average, 1.066 OPS, only 5 strikeouts in 106 at-bats (4.71% strikeout rate), and 53 RBIs, making him the best run producer with RISP for the Marlins.

To add more information about the player, we can see in the chart below, Batted Ball Events (BBE), which represents any batted ball that produces a result(This includes outs, hits and errors. Any fair ball is a Batted Ball Event. So, too, are foul balls that result in an out or an error). This helps identify which pitch types the batter excels against and what kind of hits he produces. 

First, let's examine his performance against each Pitch type, to better understand, we'll divide them into three categories (Fastballs, Breaking balls, and Offspeed balls). 

• Against Fastballs (Four-seamer, Sinker, and Cutter), he had the third best Batting average in the MLB with .352 BA, behind Lars Nootbaar(.357) and Shohei Ohtani(.380), with at least 250 Plate Appearances (PA):

.352 BA, he had 348 BBE, of which 128 were hits(98 1B), 5.2% Strikeout rate, and 6.6% Whiff rate.

• Against Breaking balls (Curveball, Slider, Sweeper, etc), he had the second best Batting average in the MLB with .362 BA, behind Yandy Diaz with .387, with at least 100 Plate Appearances (PA):
  
  

.362 BA, 105 BBE, of which 42 were hits, 10.3% Strikeout rate, and 13.6% Whiff rate.

• Against Offspeed balls (Changeup, Splitter, Forkball, etc):

.351 BA, 91 BBE, of which 33 were hits, 3.1% Strikeout rate, and 4.3% Whiff rate.

In the chart below, we can see the number of batted ball events (BBE) for each pitch group, and further down, the percentage of BBE based on launch angle and exit velocity. As mentioned before, his best characteristic is hitting without exerting much force. In the Flare/Burner category, he had 33.8% (a flare is considered a ball hit into the shallow outfield, whereas a burner is a hard-hit ground ball). These are unified in the same category because they produce similar results. 

Additionally, he had the highest average in MLB, along with Maikel Garcia with 31.7% and Bo Bichette with  31.5%. Here, you can see more about Launch Speed Angle here.

2- Plate Discipline

Now we come to the best part. As a truly unique hitter, Arraez had very few mistakes when swinging. In fact, Arraez's stats are so remarkable that I'm going to show you the raw numbers.

In the chart below, we can see contact swings (fouls and BBE) versus swings and misses, divided by zones, including outside the strike zone. 

According to Baseball Savant, his total number of swings and misses was 68, as they don't count foul tips and swinging strikes blocked (which is why the chart indicates 86). He was the best player in this category by a significant margin, 2- Myles Straw with 100, 3- Steven Kwan with 107.

Out of 1,098 swings, only 7.8% were swings and misses, and if we count only swings and misses, 47.7% were outside the strike zone. The 7.8% is called Whiff rate, Arraez ranked first, alongside Steven Kwan with 11.1% and Nico Hoerner with 12.4%.

Further down, we can see the difference between Batted Ball Events (BBE) and fouls. It can be viewed this way: there were 544 Batted Ball Events and 468 fouls. Regarding BBE, 62.3% were outs, and 37.7% hits.

Another way to demonstrate Arraez's consistency in getting on base is through wOBA, which is a metric that combines all the different aspects of hitting into one number, weighting each type of hitting event (single, double, triple, home run, walk) according to its actual run value. 

What makes this metric important for Arraez? During the season, he had 203 hits, of which 160 were singles, making this his primary method of reaching base. His wOBA in 2023 was .369, ranking in the top 15 in the MLB. The key point is that he achieved this ranking primarily through hitting, as he only had 35 walks and 4 hit by pitches.

Now let's look at his detailed wOBA by zone (the chart below is oriented from the batter's perspective). We can see that the zones near the right side had the highest wOBA. In the zone with .938, he made 4 home runs. Overall, there were few zones where he had low performance (the blue zones).

In the chart below, we can see Batting Average divided by count. Once again, Arraez is not easy batter. Only in 3-0 and 3-2 counts did he have lower performance, which is also largely due to the fact that he didn't look for many walks and preferred to swing.

Another interesting fact is that, in addition to hitting very well, Arraez is also one of the best in OPPO% (batted ball events leading to the opposite field), making it harder for opponents to field the ball. He ranks 7th in MLB with 32%. 

The leaders in this category were: 3rd - Matt Vierling with 33.6%, 2nd - Myles Straw with 35.8%, and 1st - Bo Bichette with 40.5%.

3- Extra

To give credit to the pitchers, let's see who performed the best against him. Arraez faced 61 pitchers (with at least 10 pitches to qualify), and 28 of them had a BA below .250 against him. Among those 28 pitchers, 22 held him to a .000 BA.

In the chart below, we can see the list of the 22 pitchers who did not allow any hits against Luis Arraez. It's impressive that out of the total pitches Arraez faced (300 pitches), he only had 17 whiffs,  being the 5.6% of the total. 

Seventeen pitchers struck him out once, and only Robert Garcia struck him out twice in 2023.

From this list, Luis Castillo and Kyle Bradish were finalists for the 2023 A.L Cy Young. On the other hand, the pitcher who struggled the most against Luis Arraez was Trevor Williams: 45 pitches in 13 Plate appearances, .462 BA, 0 strikeouts and 1 Whiff.