Josh Hader - 2023

 Josh Hader 🇺🇸(2023)

Joshua Ronald Hader (Millersville, Maryland, April 7, 1994) is an American professional baseball pitcher for the Houston Astros. He has previously played for the Milwaukee Brewers(2015-2022) and San Diego Padres(2022-2023). Hader is a five-time All-Star and three-time winner of the National League Reliever of the Year Award.

Josh Hader is undoubtedly one of the best closers in MLB today. Unfortunately, in the 2023 season, San Diego couldn't capitalize on his talent to make it to the postseason. Hader posted impressive numbers (nothing new for him): 1.28 ERA, 1.101 WHIP, 85 strikeouts, averaging 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. As a closer, he had 38 opportunities to win the game, of which 33 were saved, landing him in the top 10 in MLB for saves in 2023.

In this post, we will analyze the 2023 season in every possible aspect, highlighting his extensive use of the Sinker and Slider.

I must clarify that the rankings are based on a combination of both leagues, in order to assess the significance of performance in categories that feature among the best in MLB.

If you have any questions regarding the types of pitches (Fastball, Changeup, etc.), here is all the necessary information

Enjoy it 🙌

The data provided is from Baseball Savant

1- Strikeout Machine

Josh Hader threw a total of 1042 pitches, of which 74% were sinkers, 23% sliders, and 3% changeups. As a closer who allowed few runs, his talent lies in the speed and location of his pitches, placing them on the edges of the strike zone. Let's look in detail at the performance of each pitch type:

- Sinker: .190 OBA, 48 strikeouts, 27.9% Whiff, 35.8% Strikeout%, average speed of 96.1 MPH.

- Slider: .100 OBA, 33 strikeouts, 51.7% Whiff, 65.3% Strikeout%, average speed of 85.7 MPH.

- Changeup: .111 OBA, 4 strikeouts, 21.4% Whiff, with an average speed of 88.5 MPH.

First, let's look at the distribution of his pitches(All Heatmaps are oriented from the pitcher's perspective), starting with Left-handed Batters. .211 OBA, 16 strikeouts, 8 hits (8 singles). In the chart below, we can see the heatmap, in the bottom-right corner outside the strike zone is where he threw the most pitches with 40, of which 22 were sliders. In the other areas outside the strike zone, sinkers were primarily thrown.

Against Right-handed batters: .149 OBA, 68 strikeouts, 23 hits (18 singles, 2 doubles, and 3 home runs). As you can see, the vast majority of his pitches were outside the strike zone. In the upper-left corner (outside the strike zone), he had 159 pitches, of which 129 were sinkers. In the lower part, the slider was the main pitch.

Now, in the chart below, we can see the overall performance of each pitch type (Hader made 85 strikeouts, but the data shows a small percentage of Null%, so there will be 84 strikeouts, 31 hits instead of 32 hits, 26 walks instead of 28 walks). 

Clearly, his most dominant pitch was the sinker, which he struck out 37 right-handed batters and 11 left-handed batters. Overall, Hader made very few mistakes this season, making it very difficult to score runs against him(only 11 runs allowed 👽)

The chart below looks a bit confusing but is very interesting. We can observe the pitch types percentage in each count and also against right-handed batters (RHB) and left-handed batters (LHB). 

It's quite clear that his pitches were primarily against right-handed batters, where the Sinker dominated in all counts. The changeup was used almost exclusively against right-handed batters. As mentioned earlier, the location of the pitches has made his work very effective. 

In the first pitch, the Slider is where he had the most prominence. This could be because, as a closer, throwing curves puts the batter at disadvantage. In fact, 57.8% of his first pitches were strikes. 

Another interesting fact, overall, the swing percentage was 51.4%, which means that a little more than half of the pitches Hader threw, the batter swung at.

Now we'll look at the most interesting part. In the chart below, you can see all the strikes (called strikes and swinging strikes) he made against left-handed batters. We can see that 65% were swinging strikes, and 84% overall were with the Sinker. 

The majority of his strikes were in the Upper zone and outside the strike zone.

Against right-handed batters, Hader had 47% called strikes and 53% swinging strikes. The Sinker was his main source of strikes with 69%, in addition to having 36% of strikes outside the strike zone. Maintaining the same stats, with the difference that the Slider was mostly used against right-handed batters.

Also, the pitch distribution was more diverse, varying pitches within the strike zone but maintaining the tendency to pitch outside the strike zone

In the chart below, we can see more information about the performance of the pitch arsenal. On the left side, there are gray lines indicating the average MLB velocity. All of Hader's pitch types exceed the average, mainly the Sinker with 96.1 mph and Changeup with 88.5 mph.

On the right side, we can see the vertical and horizontal break of each pitch type, where the Sinker stands out significantly compared to the MLB average (dotted circles).

2- Slider

Let's talk about Hader's Slider. Here's a summary of its performance:

Slider: .100 OBA, 33 strikeouts,  51.7% Whiff, 65.3% Strikeout%, average speed of 85.7 MPH,

18 BBE(Batted Ball Events), of which 5 were hits, meaning that 27.7% of BBE resulted in hits.

Here we can see his Slider Grip and a slow-motion video of his pitching mechanics.

To wrap up this section, here we see a chart displaying the Whiff% of Hader's Slider against batters. As mentioned earlier, Hader's Slider was highly effective, with few mistakes and, most importantly, it was the key pitch for striking out opponents. 

In the red squares, we can see where the Whiff% was highest, following the common pattern of an effective Slider directed mainly in the lower zone outside the strike zone, in addition to having a considerable horizontal break (for some reason, it is not considered a Sweeper👀).

3- Hits

Josh Hader had 113 Batted Ball Events, out of which 32 were hits, making for a 28.3% hit rate. Out of the 32 hits, 26 were singles, 3 doubles, and 3 home runs.

In the graph below, we can see the hit distribution, mainly in the infield, towards second base. In the following graph, we have a radial chart showing the launch angle of the Batted Ball Events and the exit velocity, which averaged an exit velocity of 85.7 mph and a 19-degree launch angle.

For the 2024 season, Hader will play for the Houston Astros, being a key player in a team that is already complete and dominant. It is highly likely that we will see him winning a World Series in the coming years✌.