Spencer Strider (2023)
Spencer Strider 🇺🇸(2023)
Spencer Robert Strider (Columbus, Ohio, October 28, 1998), is an American professional baseball pitcher for the Atlanta Braves. He was drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB Draft. He made his MLB debut in 2021.
You can see Strider's 2022 season to compare his performance here.
In the 2023 season, he achieved the highest number of victories in MLB with 20 wins and only 5 losses. He also led MLB in strikeouts with 281, had an Earned Run Average of 3.86 (the highest average among the 2023 National League Cy Young finalists), 1.093 WHIP, and 13.5 strikeouts per game average.
Strider's season was impressive, striking out 36.8%(best in the 2023 season) of the players he faced and leading in many categories. Despite these accomplishments, his earned run average (ERA) increased significantly this year to 3.86. In this post, we will explore where he improved and where he may have fallen short this season as a pitcher, potentially impacting his chances for this year's Cy Young.
I must clarify that the rankings are based on a combination of both leagues, in order to assess the significance of performance in categories that feature among the best in MLB.
If you have any questions regarding the types of pitches (Fastball, Changeup, etc.), here is all the necessary information
Enjoy it 🙌
The data provided is from Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference
1- Strikeout Machine
Strider has a pitch arsenal composed of only three types of pitches: Four-seam Fastball (59%), Slider (34%), and Changeup (7%). Being a daring pitcher with full confidence in his strength and accuracy.
Four-seam Fastball averages 97.2 mph, with a Whiff rate of 28.7%. The Slider averages 85.6 mph with a Whiff rate of 55.3%, and the Changeup averages 87 mph with a Whiff rate of 44.4%. The Slider proved to be the most lethal pitch, thanks to its pitch sequencing to deceive hitters.
Strider ranked fourth among starting pitchers with the highest usage of Four-seam Fastball with 58.9%, following 3- Mackenzie Gore - 59.5%, 2- Michael Kopech - 61.4%, and 1- Justin Steele - 62.6%.
Before we begin with the analysis, here's a compilation of plays from Strider's season.
As you can see, in both charts, the pitches are well distributed in the strike zone, but outside the strike zone, in the lower left side, we can see that he threw 343 and 380 respectively. What was the pitch he threw the most in that area? The Slider, with a total of 555 pitches.
To try to understand Strider, I will show his stats separately against left-handed batters and right-handed batters. For context, Strider threw 1393 pitches to right-handed batters (RHB) and 1706 to left-handed batters (LHB)..
As we can see in the chart below, we have the strikeouts, walks, and hits for each pitch type.
We can see that the Slider was his most effective pitch in both cases with 139 strikeouts, 55.3% Whiff, allowing 39 hits, .154 AVG and 54.9% Strikeout Rate.
The FS Fastball can be similarly effective, but despite 124 strikeouts and 28.7% Whiff, it had 101 hits, including 17 home runs, .256 AVG and 31.4% Strikeout Rate.
In general, Strider was very dominant against both left-handed batters (LHB) and right-handed batters (RHB) with pitch sequences involving the FS Fastball and Slider. Although the Changeup was not used extensively, it proved to be very effective with 44.4% Whiff, .122 AVG, 18 strikeouts, and 36.7% Strikeout rate.
But we can't forget an important achievement from Strider in 2023 – he was the pitcher with the most strikeouts in the MLB with 281, followed by Kevin Gausman with 237 strikeouts and Pablo Lopez and Blake Snell (2023 National League Cy Young winner) with 234 strikeouts.
The chart below looks a bit confusing but is very interesting. We can observe the percentage of pitch types in each count and also against right-handed batters (RHB) and left-handed batters (LHB).
It's quite clear that FS Fastball is his primary pitch in the early counts. In 0-2 counts, we can see a significant presence of the Slider. In fact, Strider's Slider had a 33.2% Put Away(the rate of two-strike pitches that result in a strikeout), the highest percentage within his Pitch Arsenal.
Against LHB, he used the Changeup, mostly in the early counts. Lastly, one key reason for his high ERA could have been the excessive use of the FS Fastball, as we see a significant effectiveness difference between the Slider and Changeup.
Another crucial factor is the location of his fastballs(We'll see it later in this post), relying more on speed than accuracy in those pitches.
Strider led the MLB in Strikeout% (determined by total strikeouts divided by total at-bats) with 36.8%, followed by Shohei Ohtani and Blake Snell with 31.5%.
In the chart below, we can see the strikes (called strikes and swinging strikes) against right-handed batters.
61.3% were swinging strikes, indicating his high velocity and/or the effectiveness of his Slider, which significantly reduces speed compared to the Fastball. We can also observe from the heatmap that he obtained the most strikes outside the strike zone (in the red zone) with 151 pitches.
Lastly, he acquired the most strikes in the lower zone inside and outside the strike zone. As mentioned earlier, the Slider was his preferred pitch, comprising 49.7% of the total strikes against right-handed batters.
In the chart below, we can now see the statistics against left-handed batters (LHB). Comparing to the previous chart, the difference lies in the use of the FS Fastball with 58.8%.
Additionally, we can observe that the gap between called strikes (45.4%) and swinging strikes (54.6%) is narrow against LHB.
The heatmap shows a slight variation in the distribution of strikes, with the majority of strikes occurring in the lower zone at 47.8%. Lastly, the usage of the Changeup against LHB accounts for 10.3% of the total strikes.
Other interesting data is that inside and outside the strike zone, Strider led in Contact% (foul, hits, etc.) with the lowest averages, 73.3% inside the strike zone and 35% outside the strike zone. The big question is how did he get such a high ERA if he led in many defensive stats, swing and miss, etc?
To complement with more information on Strider's Pitch Arsenal, below we can see on the left side the percentage of usage for each pitch type. Additionally, we can compare it with the average MLB velocity (the grey lines). The FS Fastball is well above the MLB average with 97.2 mph, making it one of the fastest in the MLB.
On the right side, we can see the break movement for each pitch type, and next to each, we see the average movement of the MLB (with dotted lines to appreciate the difference). We can observe that Strider's FS Fastball doesn't have significant breaking movement due to the way he throw.
2- Slider
Let's review Strider's Slider stats once again: .154 Opponent Batting Average, .269 SLG, 139 Strikeouts, 55.3% Whiff, 114 Batted Ball Events, of which 39 were hits, meaning that 34% of BBE resulted in hits.
In the image below, we can see the Slider grip, which is a common grip for this type of pitch. Additionally, you can watch a video of his pitching mechanics (starting from 0:43 of the video, you can see the Slider) if you're curious about it.
To continue showcasing the great effectiveness of Strider's Slider, we can see in the charts below a heatmap of the Opponent Batting Average against the Slider (the chart is oriented from the catcher's perspective).
As we've seen before, the majority of pitches were in the lower part outside the strike zone (the blue squares), making it practically impossible to get a hit. We can also see that within the strike zone, it was less effective(white a red squares), which may be because the Slider, being a slower pitch (compared to the FS Fastball), allows batters to adjust and hit more comfortably in those areas.
Next, we have the same chart but with Whiff%. Here we can see where there was the highest percentage of swing and misses. Like in the previous charts, the Slider had a strong presence in the lower part outside the strike zone to deceive opponents with its movement and low pitching speed.
3- Hits
Now, let's move on to the most interesting part, the hits. After witnessing Strider's impressive defensive campaign, there's no doubt that within this strikeout machine, there are some issues.
Strider had 415 Batted Ball Events, of which 146 were hits, indicating that 35.2% of BBE resulted in hits. Of the 146 hits, 92 were singles, 29 doubles, 3 triples, and 22 home runs. 36.1% of the hits had an exit velocity of 95 mph or more, ranking him in the top 20 with some of the lowest Hard Hit% averages.
With Runners in Scoring Position (RISP), he had 33 hits, .219 AVG, .665 OPS, and 57 strikeouts (37.7% strikeout rate), a very impressive performance for Strider.
In the chart below, we can see the distribution of allowed hits. A significant portion of the hits occurred in the infield, between first base (Matt Olson) and second base (Ozzie Albies). Additionally, there were more than 16 home runs allowed in the right field.
Perhaps one of Strider's issues, in addition to the excessive use of the FS Fastball, is the game situation.
In the chart below, we can see the overall performance based on the count. On the first pitch, he allowed .429 OBA, with 20 hits, the majority coming from the Upper Zone with 8 hits and against FS Fastballs.
Similarly, in 2-1 and 3-1 counts, he faced the same problem, with a high OBA and a significant portion of hits coming from the Lower Zone and also against FS Fastball.
Lastly, we have another chart that shows Times Facing Opponent in Game, divided into 1, 2, and 3 times that the pitcher faces the opponent's lineup. What is highlighted in yellow is the most important to observe.
Against the first opponent rotation is where he conceded the most hits with 56 hits. In the second rotation, we can see that it's where he allowed the most runs with 35 runs. This may be due to not varying the pitch sequence too much, making it more predictable for hitters.
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