Kodai Senga (2023)

 

Kodai Senga  🇯🇵(2023)

Kodai Senga (Gamagori, Aichi Prefecture, January 30, 1993) is a Japanese professional baseball pitcher for the New York Mets.. He made his Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) debut in 2012 for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, and played for them until 2022. He is a three-time NPB All-Star and a one-time MLB All-Star.

Kodai Senga debuted with the Mets in 2023, already having extensive experience in Japan, and was one of the few players who stood out in the Mets' dismal season this year. Senga finished the season with a 2.98 ERA, 12 Wins, 7 Losses, 202 Strikeouts, 1.22 WHIP, averaging 10.9 strikeouts per game (9 innings).

Senga has a diverse Pitch Arsenal, as during this season, he used the Forkball 23.8%, which is a very rare pitch among MLB pitchers. In fact, only Senga and Mark Carasiti recorded 664 and 114 pitches, respectively. In this analysis, we will look at his performance during the season.

If you have any questions regarding the types of pitches (Fastball, Changeup, etc.), here is all the necessary information

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The data provided is from Baseball Savant

1- Defensive Power

During the 2023 season, Senga threw 2795 pitches, with 6 different types of pitches, the FS Fastball being his main pitch (37.1%), followed by the Cutter (24.8%) and Forkball (23.8%), with these two pitches being his defensive gems in the MLB. The rest of Senga's arsenal consists of the Curveball (2.6%), Slider (5.9%), and Sweeper (5.9%).

Senga threw more strikes (54%) than balls (46%), of which 54% were called strikes and 46% swinging strikes.

Now we will look at a heatmap to see where he pitched the most during this season. 

The chart is oriented from the pitcher's view.

As you can see, he pitched the most in the lower-left zone outside of the strike zone, with 679 pitches, out of which 273 were Forkballs. The only pitch aimed at the upper zone was the Fastball, where he threw 289 pitches in the upper-right zone outside of the strike zone. Next, we will look at the combination of Fastballs and breaking balls (Forkball), which became unpredictable to make swing.

Kodai Senga made it to the top 10 in the MLB in Strikeout%, which measures the percentage of strikeouts divided by at-bats. He ranked 9th with 29.1%, alongside elite pitchers like 3- Blake Snell - 31.5%, 2- Shohei Ohtani - 31.5%, and 1- Spencer Strider - 36.8%.

As you can see in the chart below, it reflects the overall performance of each type of pitch compared with Strikeouts, Walks, and Hits. The Forkball was his most dominant pitch, which struck out 110 players, followed by the FS Fastball with 67 strikeouts and 54 hits.

 In total, he had 77 walks, ranking seventh for the most walks in the MLB. He also made it to the top 25 of pitchers who had allowed less than 130 hits in the season.

With Runners in Scoring Position (RISP), Senga has had an incredible performance, with an approximate 2.04 ERA, opponents had an batting average of .184 AVG, with 14 singles and 9 doubles allowed,  53 strikeouts, and 25 walks.

In the chart below, we can see the distribution of pitches depending on the count. It's evident that the FS Fastball is the pitch with which he would open the count (0-0). 

The Cutter (a mix of a slider and a fastball, faster than a slider but with more movement than a fastball) was used more as a variation of the Fastball. 

In summary, his pitch arsenal consists of breaking balls, with the Forkball being essential as he used it on two-strike counts to strike out his opponents. The numbers for the Forkball are incredible, as his opponents had a batting average of .110 AVG, .147 SLG, allowing only 18 hits in 163 at-bats, and a Whiff% of 59.5%, making it the most lethal and difficult-to-hit pitch of his pitch arsenal.

We will see more details about the Forkball later!

Against LHBs (Left-Handed Batters), he had a batting average of .190 AVG and struck out 96 players. Meanwhile, against RHBs (Right-Handed Batters), it was .224 AVG and 106 strikeouts.

Now, we have a chart showing his strikes (called strikes and swinging strikes), where the FS Fastball obtained 32.9% of the strikes, followed by the Forkball with 27.2%. As we can see in the Heatmap, his strikes were oriented towards the lower zone at 28.4%, but it was outside the strike zone where he got the most strikes (35.1%), being very aggressive with his pitches, trying to deceive the opponents with breaking balls. 

Moreover, his FS Fastball averaged 95.6 mph, ranking in the top 20 for the highest average velocity.

2- Forkball

Now, we will analyze his best pitch, the Forkball. First, let's take a look at a compilation of his strikeouts.

The forkball is a variant of the splitter (both considered off-speed pitches) known for its big downward break as it approaches the plate. Because of the torque involved with snapping off a forkball, it can be one of the more taxing pitches to throw. In the image, we can see the grip, holding the ball between two fingers.

Now, we will look at a very interesting chart. Below, we can see a heatmap that displays the batting average of opponents against the Forkball. The chart indicates that very few batters were able to hit successfully (shown by the red squares).

The lower outside part of the strike zone is where very few players were able to make a hit. As it is an off-speed pitch, it was often used in combination with the FS Fastball to deceive opponents. 

Further down, we can observe the same chart but with the Whiff% (the percentage of swing and miss divided by the number of swings), once again demonstrating the difficulty of making hits, recalling that in 2023 Senga's Forkball had a .110 Batting Average.

For reference, a batter who maintains an Batting average of .250 is considered good.

3- Hits

Let's now take a look at the hits allowed by Kodai Senga. During this season, he allowed 126 hits, including 88 singles, 21 doubles, and 17 home runs, ranking 21st among pitchers with the fewest home runs conceded. In the chart below, we can observe a heatmap of the hit locations, showing that he received the most hits inside the infield, between third base (Brett Baty) and the shortstop (Francisco Lindor).

Senga was the second pitcher with most Wild pitches this season along with Dylan Cease with 14

Senga ranked seventh  with one of the lowest ISO (Isolated Power) averages at .119. 

ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by considering only extra-base hits.

Now we will observe a radial chart to see the launch angle and exit velocity of the allowed hits. Averaging 12° in Launch angle and 92.7 mph overall. 

The Cutter was the least effective pitch, with a .247 Batting average, allowing 41 hits. Following the FS Fastball, which, despite being his main pitch, also allowed the most home runs with 8, along with 52 allowed hits. 

Another interesting fact is that Senga's Curveball (which constituted only 2.6% of his pitch arsenal) was the fourth slowest of the 2023 season, with 72.7 MPH.